It's certainly a challenging time to be in
business. The overall business environment is the toughest
it has been in years, and it's too soon to tell whether the
$700 billion (how about a couple of trillion!) financial markets
rescue plan will have a lasting positive impact.
For months now, even companies in good shape have been hurting
because of the credit crisis. Companies that need money for
capital expenditures for expansions or renovations
have either faced delays in borrowing or have found they couldn't
get any money at all.
In July and August well before the credit meltdown in
September, PNC Financial Services Group, parent of PNC Bank,
surveyed nearly 1,000 owners of small and mid-sized businesses,
and the results (https://www.pnc.com/webapp/unsec/Requester?resource=/wcm/resources/file/ebf4ae4bb00dbdb/A_EconOut_Rls.pdf)
were hardly reassuring. PNC reports that 29 percent of those
polled were pessimistic about their own company's prospects
triple the 10 percent response to when the same question
was posed a year ago. Key concerns, cited by 65 percent or
more of those responding: higher energy costs, recession and
inflation.
Even with the new legislation passed by Congress, banks will
continue to be extremely careful in determining how much credit
they'll grant, and to whom. Companies with strong balance
sheets and good relationships with their bankers stand the
best chance of getting credit, but the current outlook is
far more cautious now than it was a few months ago.
But what about the companies that may be in a down cycle or
not performing at the highest level?
The Turnaround Management Association - comprised of professionals
like me who specialize in working with distressed companies
- posed a one-question "flash poll" to its members recently,
asking them to predict the most significant impacts of the
financial crisis on underperforming companies. The results
(http://www.turnaround.org/Newsroom/Releases.aspx?objectID=9766)
were ominous, but not surprising:
- 5 percent expect more difficulty in obtaining financing;
- 42 percent expect pending financial contracts to be withdrawn;
- 41 percent expect more loan defaults;
- 32 percent expect more companies to be liquidated, rather
than being sold or being successfully turned around.
What, then, should you be doing to steer your
business forward, and to navigate around the financial shoals
that lurk ahead?
The most important advice I can give is quite simple: Make
sure your financial house is in order. Cut back on non-essentials,
tighten your belt and preserve your cash.
Take a close look at your loan covenants - the clauses in
your bank agreements that spell out cash-flow and funding-ratio
requirements - and take extra care to remain in compliance.
Make a mistake now, and you risk losing the capital that's
essential to keeping your business running smoothly.
You've also got to be prepared for the worst. Reassess your
plans for the future, and take another look at your growth
projections.
One of the great lessons to emerge from the current crisis
is how interconnected we all are. Yes, what happens on Wall
Street does have a dramatic effect on Main Street. And what
happens to a business on one end of Main Street can have a
significant impact on its suppliers and customers down the
block. Unfortunately, no matter how well we know our own businesses,
we can't possibly know everything about our partners and our
competition. In this environment, then, the best you can do
is get your own business in order and prepare to ride out
the storm.
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